The Philadelphia Flyers took one of the boldest swings of the NHL offseason. It just didn’t work.
Philadelphia signed restricted free-agent center Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $90 million offer sheet on July 3, putting the Anaheim Ducks in an uncomfortable position. Anaheim had the right to match the deal, however, and did exactly that six days later. Carlsson will remain with the Ducks through the 2030-31 season at an NHL-record $18 million annual cap hit.
It was always unlikely that Anaheim would let a player like Carlsson walk, even with four first-round picks coming back as compensation. Still, Flyers general manager Daniel Briere deserves some credit for trying.
Carlsson was exactly the type of player Philadelphia has been missing: a young, legitimate top-line center with the potential to become one of the NHL’s best at his position. The 21-year-old finished last season with career highs in goals, assists and points, recording 29 goals and 67 points in 70 games. He added another 11 points in 12 playoff games.
Players with that combination of age, size and offensive upside almost never become available. The Flyers had the draft capital and salary-cap flexibility to make an aggressive offer, so taking the chance made sense.
The problem is what comes next.
Philadelphia still has approximately $29.6 million in projected cap space, the most in the league. But cap room is only valuable when there is someone worth spending it on, and the market does not offer an obvious replacement for Carlsson.
Christian Dvorak could open the season as Philadelphia’s top center again. He had a strong first year with the Flyers, setting career highs with 18 goals and 51 points while averaging 18:28 of ice time. Those are useful numbers, but Dvorak is better suited as a complementary middle-six center than the offensive engine of a contending team.
Trevor Zegras is another possibility. Zegras delivered the best season of his career after arriving in Philadelphia, scoring 26 goals and 67 points while leading the NHL with seven shootout goals. The Flyers could move him back to center, but he has generally been more effective offensively on the wing. Asking him to handle the defensive responsibility of a full-time No. 1 center role could take away from what made him so dangerous last season.
That leaves Briere with a difficult decision. He can pursue a trade, potentially using some of the first-round picks Philadelphia would have surrendered for Carlsson, or he can remain patient and avoid overpaying for a player who does not truly solve the problem.
The second option may be frustrating, but it could also be the smarter one. Making a panic trade just to say the position was addressed would create an even bigger problem if the Flyers end up paying first-line prices for a second-line center.
Philadelphia did finish 43-27-12 with 98 points last season and reached the second round of the playoffs. There is plenty to like about the direction of the roster, especially with Zegras, Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone giving the team a young offensive foundation.
There are also reasons to question whether last season’s success can be repeated.
The Flyers finished with the NHL’s worst power play at 15.7 percent, while their penalty kill ranked 22nd at 77.6 percent. They also leaned heavily on close games and shootouts, finishing with 10 shootout victories. Those are not always reliable ways to build another playoff season.
Goaltender Dan Vladar was another major reason Philadelphia exceeded expectations. He posted career highs with 29 wins, a 2.42 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage before producing a .922 save percentage in 10 playoff games. Vladar may continue playing at that level, but relying on another career-best season in net adds uncertainty.
The Flyers are not suddenly a bad team because Anaheim matched the offer sheet. They still have young talent, significant cap space and enough draft capital to make another major move.
But their biggest weakness remains exactly what it was before the Carlsson offer: they do not have a true No. 1 center.
Philadelphia nearly found one. Unfortunately, “nearly” will not make the team any better when the season begins.